It can seem like half the real estate news stories circle around the same topic: RBA rate decisions, rate predictions and the impact of those cuts/hikes.
Not sure what all the fuss is about? This article looks at what RBA rate decisions really change, historical decisions and the schdeule for upcoming RBA meetings.
How do the RBA meetings impact Aussie homeowners?
Every six weeks, the RBA meets to discuss the national cash rate. This is the interest rate that the Reserve Bank charges high street banks to borrow money.
As it’s a cost of business, those banks and lenders generally pass on those rates to lenders (like you). If you have a variable rate mortgage, the rate you pay on that will change as the RBA makes announcements. The higher the cash rate, the higher the rate on home loans.
The changing rate is also reflected in other bank offerings, like the interest rate on savings accounts.
The goal of the cash rate and its changes are to keep inflation between two and three per cent while also allowing for sustained full-time employment. It also has impacts on the strength of the Australian dollar which impacts travelling budgets.
What are the options when the RBA meet?
There are only three options the RBA has when they meet about the rate:
* Hold (keep rates the same)
* Cut (lower the rate)
* Hike (increase the rate)
Every hike or cut since October 2022 has been up or down by 0.25 percentage points, but there have been bigger and smaller changes prior to that. From June 2022 to September 2022, there were four consecutive hikes of 0.50.
In November 2020, we saw a 0.15 cut, bringing the rate down to a historic low of 0.10%. Bigger changes were more common in the past, and you have to go back to February 2009 to see the last change of a full percentage point.
The most recent meeting in June 2026 saw the RBA hold the rate at 4.35%.
Historical RBA rate decisions
The table below shows all the decisions announced by the RBA from the start of 2025 to the most recent 2026 meeting.
| Date | Decision | New rate |
| June 2026 | Hold | 4.35 |
| May 2026 | Increase 0.25 | 4.35 |
| March 2026 | Increase 0.25 | 4.10 |
| Feb 2026 | Increase 0.25 | 3.85 |
| December 2025 | Hold | 3.60 |
| November 2025 | Hold | 3.60 |
| September 2025 | Hold | 3.60 |
| August 2025 | Decrease 0.25 | 3.60 |
| May 2025 | Decrease 0.25 | 3.85 |
| February 2025 | Decrease 0.25 | 4.10 |
When does RBA meet next?
The RBA meets eight times a year, roughly once every six weeks. Generally, they meet and then make a media announcement the following day.
After the announcement on 16 June, they have four more meetings scheduled for 2026. Here’s the timetable for the next RBA meetings:
| Meeting | Statement |
| 10 August | 11 August |
| 28 September | 29 September |
| 2 November | 3 November |
| 7 December | 8 December |
As of June, economists from the big four banks are generally in agreement on their predictions for the rest of the year:
- ANZ: No change in 2026, cuts in late 2027 that will bring the cash rate to 3.85% by the end of the year.
- Comm Bank: Similar to ANZ but expecting cuts earlier, with the 3.85% figure reached by spring 2027.
- NAB: NAB predict more change, with the cash rate coming down to 3.60% by the end of 2027.
- Westpac: Westpac, however, are going the other way. They’re predicting two more rate hikes in 2026, bringing the cash rate up to 4.85%.
The RBA cash rate and your mortgage
With no way of really telling what the RBA will do next, we never like to make our own predictions. Trying to time the market to get the best rate is a fool’s game and, unless you get a fixed mortgage, won’t do much over the full length of your loan. What we would say is that it’s generally a good idea to be able to afford repayments should the cash rate increase further, otherwise you might get caught out when your repayments increase.
Want to know how things might impact you personally? Give our team a call. They’ll be able to review your situation and find you the best home loan on the market.
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